NCCSP

CLIMATE CHANGE PREPARATION

As we debate how climate change will affect us in 50 or 100 years, climate change already has begun to alter natural and human systems worldwide.  In the U.S. alone, mountaintop populations of desert bighorn, marmots, and pika already have gone extinct due to climate change, and southern species of fish, mammals and birds have begun to show up farther north of their historical ranges.  Polar bears have shifted from breeding on ice floes to the more stable but less protected mainland.  Even kangaroo rats have become smaller in response to a warmer environment.  A recent Army Corp of Engineers report projected a lifespan of only 10-15 years for three villages located along the Alaskan coast.  Climate change isn’t coming.  It’s here.  Climate scientists tell us that even if we were to halt all emissions tomorrow, it would take decades for the climate to stabilize.  In the meantime, ecosystems and human communities will continue to face more intense climate related stress. 

Given such dire projections, integrated climate change response strategies MUST become a priority for conservation, land-use planning, and decision-making at all levels.  Two primary approaches for dealing with the threat of climate change are being implemented: (1) mitigation - reducing the threat of climate change by curtailing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing CO₂ sequestration; and (2) preparation (also referred to as adaptation) – building systems (ecological, social, economic) that will continue to function under climate stress.

How do we liken climate change to an impending car crash?

At the National Center, we are developing sound preparation strategies for natural systems that are based on ecosystem science designed to bring as much biodiversity as possible through what we are calling the “climate change bottleneck.”  Climate change preparation is in its infancy and a variety of approaches are being proposed.  Because preparation activities are carried out at local and regional levels, the development of locally and regionally applicable preparation strategies is especially urgent, yet practically non-existent, at this time.

* ORGANIZING CLIMATE FUTURES FORUMS - We are focusing our efforts on local watersheds throughout Oregon.  In a collaborative effort with the Climate Leadership Initiative (University of Oregon), the Oregon Climate Change Commission, and the Pacific Northwest Research Station, we are coordinating local climate change preparation workshops that are the first of their kind to be conducted in the U.S.

* IDENTIFYING PRIORITY REGIONS - Given limited resources, it is prudent to strategically prioritize areas for immediate climate preparation work based on their biological importance and risks from a potential lack of action.  We are partnering with the National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis, Defenders of Wildlife, Rocky Mountain Research Station, and Island Press to recommend strategies for land managers, planners, and decision-makers in high priority focal regions, develop a website to serve as a clearinghouse of preparation information for those regions, and help identify information and research needs.

* DEVELOPING NEW CONSERVATION METHODS - Land and wildlife managers are faced with maintaining populations of native and endemic species within the boundaries of static conservation areas.  Predicted shifts in species’ ranges, however, and declines in habitat quality will challenge managers and threaten their ability to meet management and conservation objectives.  Many of the approaches that conservation practitioners take towards identifying land for conservation and managing land and wildlife populations will need to change in order to adapt to climate change.  In fact, some primary tenets of wildlife management, such as umbrella species and historical range of variation (HRV), are suddenly obsolete if we consider climate change projections.

* IDENTIFYING AREAS OF CLIMATE STABILITY FOR CONSERVATION FOCUS - Not all areas of the U.S. are expected to experience biome-level change, but many are.  Areas that remain relatively stable are expected to act as refuges for native species.  Small refuges of relict plants and animals are hypothesized to have persisted across the landscape during periods of glaciation in the past, and similar “microrefugia” could act to maintain species diversity and provide colonizers in the future.  Modeling efforts to identify where microrefugia for native species may be located across the U.S. would be valuable for developing a system of reserves with the main purpose of preserving species and genetic diversity for the long term.

 
Read the Pew Center on Global Climate Change Climate Change Adaptation Report.

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